AUDUSD:
AUD/USD edged higher to 0.7267 last week but failed to sustain there and retreated. An intraday top should at least be in place and more importantly, bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD is arguing that whole rise from 0.6075 has completed too. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week as long as 0.7143 minor resistance holds. Further break of 0.6760 support will add much credence to the immediate bearish case, i.e. whole three wave consolidation from 0.6008 (0.7014, 0.6075, 0.7267) has completed too. Hence, deeper fall should be seen to retest 0.6008 low. On the upside, though, above 0.7143 will delay the bearish case and suggest that another rise could be seen before topping.
In the bigger picture, whole fall from 0.9849 made a bottom at 0.6008 and turned into sideway consolidation since then. Such consolidation should be near to completion, if not completed at 0.7267 already). Firm break of 0.6008 will indicate that the down trend has resumed for at least another five wave medium term decline, targeting 0.4773 (01 low). Though another rise above 0.7267 will indicate that consolidation from 0.6008 is still in progress for 38.2% retracement of 0.9849 to 0.6008 at 0.7475 before completion.
In the longer term picture, a long term top is in place at 0.9849 with bearish divergence condition in monthly MACD and RSI. Considering the corrective three wave structure of the multi year up trend from 0.4773 to 0.9849 and the impulsive nature of the fall from 0.9849, the long term down trend could be resuming. Having said that, while some interim medium term consolidation could be seen, the fall from 0.9849 is in favor to extend to retest 0.4773 low at least.