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Is calling here a Positive EV play?

Is calling here a Positive EV play?

UTG ($6.65)
Hero (MP) ($2.53)
Button ($5.55)
SB ($0.89)
BB ($3.82)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 7s, 7d
UTG calls $0.02, Hero calls $0.02, 1 fold,SB raises to $0.10, BB calls $0.08, UTG calls $0.08, Hero calls $0.08

Flop: ($0.40) As, 10c, 9s (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Herochecks

Turn: ($0.40) Ac (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Herochecks

River: ($0.40) 7h (4 players)
SB bets $0.08, 1 fold, UTG raises to $4.28,Hero calls $2.43 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $5.34 | Rake: $0.25

Everyone here are loose passive (including myself).

TOP

Think I am posting my own analysis as well as the showdown soon...but seems no one's interested in this hand...lol

TOP

I went into think tank for 70 seconds and find the following:

Hands I'm winning

1. A weak ace w/o 7,9,T. He is the kind the player that overplays hands, so the preflop call sounds reasonable. Checks are also reasonable with this kind of play due to the fear of getting outkickered in by the guys in front. A5, A5, A6, A8, AJ fits into this category, 40 possible hands.

2. Strong ace AQ and AK. He would probably have bet it on flop, but there is still a minor possibility to it. Rounding down the 8 hands to half just to reduce the possibility. 4 possible hands.

3. Straight. 86 would be possible , J8 is highly unlikely due to preflop raise. 4 possible hands.

That makes me winning with 48 possible hands.

4. TT/99 I'd have bet these hands on the flop, but you really can't predict what happens in a cents table. 4 possible hands.

5. AT/A9. Slowplaying all the way and finding a prey finally on the trying to milk desperately, but the strong all-in move is best explained by these hands. 12 possible hands but I will adjust it to like 20.

6. A7/AA. Oh well. 2 possible hands. However these also explains the allin move perfectly, make it 4.

That leaves me with 28 losing hands.

The table has been quite passive and there isnt really any bluffs that get showed down in the hour I played, but there is always a possiblity to it, say 10%.

With the 28-48, or 1.6-1 plus the minor possibility of bluffing, although I inclined to the thoughts that he had the nuts, I called and found A7 in his hole, and the pot got shipped to him.

TOP

No I'd have played it the same way. I was calling for set mining anyway.

My rationale behind the flop and turn is simply check-fold. This is a 4-handed pot and there is a high chance that I will be betting into a weak ace or mid pair that would chase me till river, with PFR and so much calls there is so much money in middle, the risk for me to take the pot right down there is really too high, I better keep the pot small. Taking free cards is actually MY strategy, them giving free cards to me is a grace.

TOP

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